Ukip come second in Newark . Progress or Flop?

So Ukip despite leading the European Election Poll have still to have to win a Westminster Parliamentary By-Election

By-Election 2014: Newark[19][20]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Robert Jenrick	17,431	45.0	-8.9
	UKIP	Roger Helmer	10,028	25.9	+22.1
	Labour	Michael Payne	6,842	17.7	-4.7
	Independent	Paul Baggaley	1,891	4.9	N/A
	Green	David Kirwan	1,057	2.7	N/A
	Liberal Democrat	David Watts	1,004	2.6	-17.4
	Monster Raving Loony	Nick The Flying Brick	168	0.4	N/A
	Independent	Andy Hayes	117	0.3	N/A
	Bus-Pass Elvis Party	David Bishop	87	0.2	N/A
	Common Good	Dick Rodgers	64	0.2	N/A
	Patriotic Socialist Party	Lee Woods	18	0.0	N/A
Majority			7,403	19.1
Turnout			38,707	52.79	-19.61
	Conservative hold		Swing	-15.5

General Election 2010: Newark[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Patrick Mercer	27,590	53.9	+3.4
	Labour	Ian Campbell	11,438	22.3	−6.0
	Liberal Democrat	Pauline Jenkins	10,246	20.0	+1.6
	UKIP	Rev Major Tom Irvine	1,954	3.8	+1.0
Majority			16,152	31.5
Turnout			51,228	71.4	+8.0
	Conservative hold		Swing	+4.7

At first glance this l would look like an impressive swing to Ukip but they failed in a seat that saw rge previous Tory MPercer resigning  after an investigation by the BBC's Panorama programme regarding allegations of paid lobbying without registering the interest.

Itis is allso a huge disapointment for Labour who gained the seat in the Bair landslid Fiona Jones  of 1997

General Election 1997: Newark
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Fiona Jones	23,496	45.2
	Conservative	Richard Alexander	20,480	39.4
	Liberal Democrat	Peter Harris	5,960	11.5
	Referendum Party	Graham Creedy	2,035	3.9	N/A
Majority			3,016
Turnout				74.5
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing

Jones was accused of fraudulently failing to declare the full amount of her election costs, and convicted of election fraud in March 1999 and had the Labour whip withdrawn. She was the first MP to be disqualified from membership of theHouse of Commons for that offence since it was introduced by the Corrupt and Illegal Practices Prevention Act 1883. However, the Court of Appeal overturned her conviction within weeks: the disqualification was revoked, and she resumed her place in the House of Commons. However, she lost her seat in the 2001 general election. She later lost a civil case brought against the police for malicious prosecution, and ultimately succumbed to alcoholism.

She contested her seat in the 2001 general election, but lost to the Conservative candidate Patrick Mercer. So it possible Labour would have held the seat up to 2010

So Labour may have held the seat  up to 2010]

For the Liberal Democrats it;s another disaster.as they finish sixth.They wee once the Byelection masters particularly in the period of the Major government but now are beginning to look like a fringe party.

But what we really need to know where are the Ukip votes coming from?

Maybe i time to look at the numbers rather than the percentages.

The Tories ost 10159

Labour Lost 4594

Liberal Democrats Lost  9242

Ukip Gained 15477

12521 fewer People  voted 

So for example did Liberal Democrats vote go to Ukip or did it go to the Tories to stop Ukip or stay at home?

Maybe its time we had a decent poll of switches only then can we even hope to gather a true picture.