Will Carwyn be seen in Alyn and Deeside by-election?

It must be said that  the selection of the son of late Labour assembly member Carl Sargeant  to fight the by-election caused by his father's death, it  may well not be good news for Carwyn Jones.

Jack Sargeant, 23, was chosen by party members in  ahead of the by-election on 6 February.

He beat Flintshire councillor Carolyn Thomas and Saltney town councillor Hannah Jones.

This could have been seen  as yet another Labour Dynastic succession but  the circumstances means that Jack Sargeant  will be challeging the circumstances  that led to his fatehr taking his own
life.

Carl Sargeant, who had represented in the Assembly since 2003, was found dead in November.

Jack Sargeant said he would be "seeking justice" for his father and "getting to the truth about the chain of events that led to his premature death".

 "I am humbled and honoured to have been selected as Labour's candidate.
"I would like to thank local Labour Party members for the faith they have placed in me.
"I will be standing on a platform of being a powerful voice for local people - in the proud tradition of my father."
He said he would listen to local concerns about the economy, health and education and promised to "champion north Wales interests on all these issues".
"Whilst friends from the wider Labour family across Britain will be welcome to visit and campaign alongside us to secure victory, I want to emphasise - this will be a locally run campaign," he added.
"I take nothing for granted in this by-election."

 Even under normal circumstances Labour would be favourite  to win.

Welsh Assembly Election 2016: Alyn and Deeside^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Carl Sargeant	9,922	45.7	−6.9
	Conservative	Mike Gibbs	4,558	21.0	−7.1
	UKIP	Michelle Brown	3,765	17.4	+17.4
	Plaid Cymru	Jacqueline Hurst	1,944	9.0	+1.4
	Liberal Democrats	Peter Williams	980	4.5	−3.1
	Green	Martin Bennewith	527	2.4	+2.4
Majority			5,364	24.7	+0.2
Turnout			21,696	35.0	−2.0
	Labour hold		Swing	+0.1

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Alyn and Deeside^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Carl Sargeant	11,978	52.6	+13.8
	Conservative	John Bell	6,397	28.1	+5.2
	Liberal Democrats	Peter Williams	1,725	7.6	−2.3
	Plaid Cymru	Shane Brennan	1,710	7.5	+0.9
	BNP	Michael Whitby	959	4.2	N/A
Majority			5,581	24.5	+8.6
Turnout			22,769	37	+1.5
	Labour hold		Swing	+4.3

 UKIP previously said they would only stand if Jack Sargeant failed to win the Labour nomination. Whether  this bolsters Jack Sargeant's chances is open to question.

The Conservatives had selected former nurse Sarah Atherton as their candidate for the by-election and community councillor Donna Lalek will stand on behalf of the Liberal Democrats.

UKIP previously said they would only stand if Jack Sargeant failed to win the Labour nomination.

Plaid Cymru announced  announced that it had selected Carrie Harper and it could well be argued in the Wrexham councillor they may well have the best candidate.

Though this has never been a Plaid target so perhaps second place would be  a very good result.

As Nick Servini, BBC Wales political editor points out

"This comes as no surprise but it does confirm that a by-election already due to take place under extraordinary circumstances is likely to be a highly charged affair with the son of the late Carl Sargeant looking to keep the memory of his father alive.
Opposition parties will have to deal with the emotional weight that will inevitably surround his campaign and the undoubted popularity within Labour ranks of his late father, particularly in and around his hometown, and power base of Connah's Quay.
Jack Sargeant had made an effort to win the support of Labour members not just through his family connection but also with a focus on local jobs and skills.
This will presumably be a central part of his campaign, as will thoughts about his father, no matter how difficult that becomes for the leadership of a Welsh Labour party already facing deep divisions within its own ranks about the sacking of Carl Sargeant."

The interesting question is will Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones visit Alyn and Deeside during the campaign ? will Jeremy Corbyn?

It would be vary peculiar for the Labour UK leader to be seen campaigning in Wales whilst his Welsh Branch Manager remains at home.

What of other Welsh AM's will we see those who are seeking to replace Carwyn as "Welsh" Leader  campaigning  whilst his supporters   make excuses.

The election of Jack Sargeant  should be seen as   evidence that Labour hegemony in Wales is intact.

However  it is likely that it could lead  to changes at the top and a major split in the Assembly group.

On the night of  6th February as the result of the by-election becomes known, there may be a number of fixed grins among the Labour hierarchy.